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Water AetherwingTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 74.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |